Live prediction market odds for Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
Resolved 2026-05-26
This market resolved on 2026-05-26. Over 2.5 runs scored was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-05-26. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Over 2.5 runs scoredWINNER | 99% | — | — |
Over 3.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — |
Over 4.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Over 2.5 runs scored led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Over 3.5 runs scored at 99%, Over 4.5 runs scored at 99%, San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 at 87%.
Over 2.5 runs scored held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Over 2.5 runs scored, Over 3.5 runs scored at 99% and Over 4.5 runs scored at 99% and San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 at 87% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Over 2.5 runs scored: 99¢ on Kalshi. Over 3.5 runs scored: 99¢ on Kalshi. Over 4.5 runs scored: 99¢ on Kalshi. San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5: 87¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Over 2.5 runs scored would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf San Diego wins the Philadelphia vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Philadelphia vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres, scheduled for May 26 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 | — | 87% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 3.5 | — | 84% | — |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | 82% | — |
Total under 11.5 | — | 81% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 2.5 | — | 75% | — |
Total under 10.5 | — | 74% | — |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | 74% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies | 99% | 50% | 96% |
Total over 5.5 | 99% | 71% | — |
Total under 9.5 | — | 68% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.5 | — | 66% | — |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | 63% | — |
Total over 6.5 | 99% | 62% | — |
Total under 8.5 | — | 57% | — |
Total over 7.5 | 1% | 50% | — |
Total under 7.5 | — | 50% | — |
Total over 8.5 | 1% | 43% | — |
Total under 6.5 | — | 38% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 1.5 | 1% | 37% | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 1% | 34% | — |
Total over 9.5 | 1% | 33% | — |
Total under 5.5 | — | 29% | — |
San Diego Padres | 1% | 50% | 6% |
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 2.5 | 1% | 27% | — |
Total over 10.5 | 1% | 26% | — |
Total over 11.5 | 1% | 20% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 3.5 | 1% | 19% | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 2% | 25% | — |
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 4.5 | — | 13% | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | 2% | 16% | — |
Over 12.5 runs scored | 1% | — | — |
Philadelphia Phillies
81.7% avg
