The Gossip
There’s been a fair amount of chatter and rumor lately about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce perhaps expecting a child in 2025. Some of the speculation comes from innocuous sources: a photo of Swift wearing a black dress in New York that people thought made her appear with a “rounder” mid‑section. There was also a viral ultrasound image showing her and Kelce with scans, which spread widely on social media, but that ultrasound photo seems to be fabricated — reverse‑image searches and AI watermark analysis trace it back to a Grok AI generator, and fact‑checkers have found no credible confirmation from Swift or Kelce.
Is the market priced correctly?
As of September 22, 2025, the current market price of $0.14 is probably reflecting noise and a small chance that something real might emerge. A photo, a social media moment, or a leaked private discussion can all result in small, but non‑trivial moves in the price.
In terms of whether the “Yes” side is overpriced or underpriced, it’s hard to say — as things usually are with prediction markets. When they have enough volume, markets tend to be pretty efficient at pricing outcomes correctly. As they say, there’s no such thing as a free lunch.
That said, here’s what could move the probability meaningfully upward:
- If a credible outlet with strong sources reports that Swift is pregnant or expecting
- Public appearances where Taylor is wearing clothing that causes fans to speculate about a potential pregnancy
- Photo leaks or medical filings that point towards a pregnancy
Anything like that would change things quickly. Until then, the risk remains high that “Yes” is mostly speculative. Overall, my take is that while there is just enough rumor to make the “Yes” side non‑zero, there is little credible evidence so far.
Final Thoughts
What makes this market particularly interesting is the blend of celebrity culture and financial speculation. Swift is one of the most covered public figures in the world, and every detail of her life generates immense scrutiny online. That dynamic creates fertile ground for rumors to take hold, which in turn fuels volatility in a market like this. It’s also worth remembering that celebrity pregnancy rumors have a long track record of being wrong — tabloids frequently float stories about stars being pregnant only for nothing to materialize.
From a trading perspective, this means short‑term sentiment spikes may present opportunities for nimble players, but holding a large “Yes” position over time comes with a high likelihood of decay as evidence fails to appear. The price may wobble, but absent credible reporting or direct confirmation, the base case remains firmly with “No.”