Guides & Market Intelligence
Prediction market strategies, platform deep-dives, and data-driven analysis to sharpen your edge.
How to Short on Prediction Markets: The Mechanics Explained
Prediction markets don't have a 'short' button — you express a short view by buying NO or by selling YES shares you own. Here's exactly how it works on Polymarket and Kalshi, with examples.
Kalshi Fees 2026: Complete Guide to Trading, Deposit & Withdrawal Costs
Kalshi's peak taker fee is 1.75%, but most trades cost far less. Here's the full P×(1-P) formula, category-by-category fees, maker rebates, and how to keep your costs under 0.5% per trade.
Polymarket vs Kalshi 2026: Side-by-Side Comparison for Real Traders
Fees, liquidity, market selection, withdrawal speed, US legality, mobile app. The unsentimental head-to-head between the two biggest prediction markets — and which one wins for which type of trader.
Prediction Market Glossary: 40 Terms Every Trader Should Know
From 'implied probability' to 'thick book' — the complete A-to-Z reference for prediction market terminology, with concrete examples on Polymarket and Kalshi.
How to Evaluate Prediction Market Liquidity Before You Trade
A practical guide to checking depth, spreads, and fill quality before you commit capital. Stop getting worse prices than you expected.
Wall Street Quants Are Taking Over Prediction Markets: What Retail Traders Should Know
DRW, Susquehanna, and Jump Trading are building dedicated prediction market desks. Here's how institutional money changes the game — and where retail traders still have an edge.
Why the Same Market Has Different Prices on Kalshi vs Polymarket
The same question can trade at 52¢ on one platform and 58¢ on another. It's not a glitch — it's liquidity, demographics, fees, and market structure. Here's what drives the gap.
Best API for Prediction Markets in 2026 (Kalshi, Polymarket)
Compare the best prediction market API in 2026: Polymarket API, Kalshi API, PredictIt, Predict.fun and Prediction Hunt's unified cross-platform data API.
How to Build a Prediction Market Trading Bot: A Practical API Guide
A technical walkthrough of the APIs, SDKs, strategies, and hard-earned lessons behind building automated trading systems for prediction markets — from your first API call to a working bot.
Position Sizing in Prediction Markets: The Kelly Criterion Guide
The Kelly Criterion, fractional Kelly, correlation risk, and why most prediction market traders blow up not because they're wrong — but because they bet too much when they're right.
How to Use Polymarket: A Complete Beginner's Guide for US Traders (2026)
Step-by-step Polymarket tutorial for US traders: create your account, deposit funds, place your first trade, and avoid the 5 mistakes that cost beginners money. Updated 2026.
Is Insider Trading on Prediction Markets Illegal? What Kalshi and Polymarket Traders Need to Know
A Kalshi trader was fined $20,000 for insider trading in 2026. Israeli authorities arrested bettors over Iran military bets. Here's where the legal line actually is.
Prediction Market Parlays: How Kalshi Combos Work and Why They Beat Sportsbook Parlays
Kalshi lets you combine multiple event contracts into a single parlay. Here's the math behind combos, when they give you better prices, and when they're a trap.
Do You Owe Taxes on Polymarket Winnings? What the IRS Actually Requires (2026)
Yes — prediction market profits are taxable income. Here's exactly what Polymarket and Kalshi traders owe, what counts as a deductible loss, and how to file without overpaying.
Prediction Markets vs. Sportsbooks: Why Bettors Are Leaving DraftKings for Kalshi
DraftKings charges 4.5% vig on every bet. Kalshi charges 1-2%. Here is why sharp sports bettors are switching to prediction markets in 2026.
What is a Walkover in Tennis?
Walkovers explained: definition, differences vs. retirement/default, implications and betting rules.
Alt Receiving Yards: What It Means and How to Use It
A practical guide to alternate receiving yards: how they work, risks, and strategies.
What Is Reverse Line Movement in Online Betting?
Reverse line movement (RLM) explained: why lines move against public betting, how to spot it early, and when to use it.
Polymarket vs Kalshi Fees: Which Platform Takes Less of Your Winnings?
Polymarket now charges category-based fees up to 1.8%. Kalshi charges up to 1.75%. Opinion has a $0.25 minimum. See the full 2026 fee breakdown with real dollar examples.
Is Kalshi Legit?
A deep dive into Kalshi's regulation, legal risks, and user experience.
How to Check for Arbitrage
Add outcomes and compare to $1; a quick checklist for real-world execution.
7 Best Political Betting Sites (2026): Kalshi vs Polymarket
We analyzed liquidity, fees, and legality for the 2026 midterms. See who wins the fee war between Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. Updated March 2026.
How to Read Prediction Market Prices (Without Getting Misled)
How to interpret market prices correctly: use midpoints, account for fees, and watch for uneven information.
The Mirage of "Free Money": A Story of Cross-Exchange Arbitrage
Why "free" arbitrage often isn't: contract mismatches, invisible costs, and execution risk.
Liquidity Lies: How Surface Prices Can Mislead Traders
Same price ≠ same trade: depth, spread, stability, and compounding slippage behind the quote.
Polymarket Fees 2026: Calculator & Complete Cost Guide
Polymarket promised 1.8% max fees. The actual formula charges up to 7.2% on low-probability crypto markets — here's the math, V1 vs V3 comparison, and how to structure trades to minimize what you pay.