Nobody Picked the Anaheim Ducks to Win the Pacific Division. The Standings Disagree.
Anaheim sits 2nd in the Pacific at 37-27 — above .500, above the Oilers, and closing on Vegas. Prediction markets just caught up, pricing the Ducks at 38% and rising. This rebuild isn't a rebuild anymore.
Coming into this season, the consensus view on the Anaheim Ducks was straightforward: another year of development, another year outside the playoffs, another year of patiently watching the young core grow up. The Ducks hadn't made the playoffs since 2018 — seven consecutive heartbreaking seasons. The Hockey News The optimistic projection was that maybe, with some things going right, they'd sneak into a wild card spot. Nobody said they'd be chasing the Pacific Division title in March. And yet. The Ducks are 37-27, second in the Pacific, with a better win percentage than the Vegas Golden Knights sitting above them. Prediction markets have noticed. Anaheim has surged to 38% on Polymarket to win the division — up 30% in recent weeks — making this a genuine two-team race with Vegas at 40%.
How this happened The offseason move that changed everything was hiring Joel Quenneville. The second-winningest coach in NHL history returned to the bench after a four-year absence, tasked with unlocking a young core that had been trending up but hadn't quite arrived. The Sporting Tribune The bet was that Quenneville — who developed Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in Chicago — could do the same for Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Mason McTavish. That bet is paying off. Anaheim was the only team in the NHL last season to have three 20-goal scorers aged 22 or younger in McTavish, Carlsson, and Gauthier. The Sporting Tribune All three were expected to improve. All three have. McTavish is up to 12 goals with 29 points on the season, including five goals in his last 13 games CBS Sports — a pace that would have been hard to project from the outside. The other piece is goaltending. Lukas Dostal has become the unquestioned starter, and his signature knowledge of angles and ability to track pucks through screens have given the Ducks a chance to win any game they step on the ice. The Hockey News When a young team starts to believe they can win, the standings tend to follow. The wrinkle: Carlsson is out The market's caution is partly justified. Leo Carlsson — the team's No. 1 center and the player with the highest ceiling on the roster — is sidelined with a thigh injury for 3-5 weeks, a timeline that endangers his participation for Sweden at the Olympics and leaves a significant hole in the top line. CBS Sports The Ducks' response has been instructive. Mikael Granlund scored in overtime to give Anaheim a home-and-home sweep over the Kings this weekend, his first game-winner as a Duck, with McTavish stepping into a larger role during the absence. CBS Sports A lesser team folds when its best player goes down. Anaheim swept the Kings. What the market is pricing The wide bid-ask spread on Polymarket — asks sitting above 50¢, bids in the high 20s — signals this market is still thin and conviction is still building. That's actually useful information: the price reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the Ducks can hold their position over the season's final weeks without Carlsson, not a settled verdict. The regular season locks on April 30, and remaining head-to-head games against Vegas will likely decide the division. The Sporting Tribune Vegas, sitting first in the division at 31-22, has played fewer games and has more runway. The Golden Knights remain the slight favorite for good reason. But the Ducks were supposed to be a year or two away from this conversation. The standings say the conversation is happening now.
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