12.6% arbitrage on Next James Bond actor: Callum Turner vs. Kalshi

The Spread

An arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the betting markets regarding the next James Bond actor. Currently, there is a notable price gap between the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms concerning Callum Turner’s odds to become the iconic 007. On Polymarket, Turner is listed with a probability of 2300% (representing an implied possibility of 0.043% to 0.043% chance), whereas Kalshi offers a much higher probability for the ‘No’ outcome at 6400% (implying a significantly lower inclination towards Turner's selection). The difference of 12.6% in the Return on Investment (ROI) is important as it signals a clear pricing inefficiency that traders can leverage.

The Setup

To maximize this arbitrage opportunity, traders should execute the following steps: 1. Purchase contracts on Polymarket for Callum Turner with a buy price of 2300%. 2. Simultaneously, sell contracts on Kalshi for the 'No' option at 6400%. Given a total cost of 8700% associated with this transaction (profit: -8600 percentage points per contract), traders can benefit from the 12.6% ROI potential by carefully managing the positions as expected outcomes evolve.

The Context

As of February 26, 2026, no substantial developments have indicated Callum Turner as a frontrunner for the next James Bond role. Current media coverage has shifted attention to other actors, notably Taron Egerton, who has publicly ruled himself out, and Jacob Elordi, who has gained traction as leading candidate. This shift could explain why Polymarket’s price remains higher for Turner, reflecting historical betting trends rather than current reality. According to sources, Turner had briefly been viewed as a favorite in past conversations, with articles such as those by Accio and International Business Times highlighting his prior contention for the role. However, the newer dynamics suggest a change in investor sentiment which has not been reflected accurately across platforms.

The Fine Print

While the outlined arbitrage opportunity appears profitable, traders should consider some inherent risks. Execution fees may apply on both platforms, eating into profits, especially when trading at lower volumes. There's also the concern of execution lag; rapid movements in market sentiment could affect the arbitrage viability before trades are executed. Furthermore, liquidity varies between markets, which could potentially result in unfavorable fills. Timing is crucial; as rumors or news break, the odds can shift dramatically, limiting the expected gains. To navigate this trade effectively, maintaining a watchful eye on related news developments and adjusting positions responsively will be essential for capturing the arbitrage before the opportunity closes.