Steyer at 64% to Win California Governor Despite Polling Third

Eric Swalwell's Exit Reshapes the 2026 California Governor's Race, and Tom Steyer Is the Accidental Beneficiary

Eric Swalwell suspended his gubernatorial campaign on April 13, 2026, and announced plans to resign from Congress entirely after serious sexual assault allegations surfaced. He denies the charges. Within 72 hours, the prediction market odds for Tom Steyer to win the California governor's race jumped from 54% to 64%, a 10-percentage-point move that represents the sharpest swing in this market since trading opened. The implied probability on Kalshi sits at 66%; PredictIt prices it at 63%. Both platforms agree on the direction: Steyer is the consensus Democratic frontrunner now that his most visible rival has imploded.

That consensus rests on a thin foundation. Steyer, a billionaire philanthropist who ran a short-lived presidential campaign in 2020 and briefly considered the governor's race in 2022, enters the pole position not because voters chose him but because the field cleared around him. No major endorsement has materialized in the 48 hours since Swalwell's exit. No rival Democrat has dropped out to consolidate the progressive vote. San Diego County Democratic Party Chairman Will Rodriguez-Kennedy publicly urged additional Democratic candidates to withdraw, a plea that underscores how far consolidation is from reality.

The market moved on removal of a competitor, not addition of support for Steyer. That distinction matters because California's jungle primary sends the top two vote-getters to the general election regardless of party. If Democrats remain fragmented, two Republicans could advance, and Steyer's 64% implied probability would become a relic of a bet that never paid off.

California's Democratic Primary Is a Void, Not a Coronation

The remaining Democratic field is crowded enough to make consolidation a fantasy without at least two more withdrawals. Katie Porter, the former congresswoman, polls at 9.7% among likely voters. Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor, sits at 11.7%. Xavier Becerra, the former HHS Secretary, holds 3.7%. Matt Mahan registers 4.0%. Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond round out the field at 2.7% and 1.0%, respectively. None has signaled an intent to exit.

Combined, Democratic candidates account for roughly 47.5% of the vote in the March-to-April 270toWin survey. That total exceeds Republican support, which stands at approximately 29.3% split between Steve Hilton (18%) and Chad Bianco (11.3%). The math is clear: if every Democratic voter lined up behind a single candidate, that candidate would win comfortably. California's registered-Democrat advantage, roughly 46% of the electorate versus 24% Republican, reinforces this structural edge.

But the jungle primary does not reward unified parties. It rewards the two individuals with the most votes. With six Democrats splitting 47.5% and two Republicans splitting 29.3%, Hilton at 18% and Bianco at 11.3% currently occupy the top two spots. A two-Republican runoff in deep-blue California would be a historic embarrassment for Democrats. That threat is what's driving Rodriguez-Kennedy's public calls for dropouts, and it's what makes the market's Steyer bet so fragile.

Steyer's campaign platform centers on affordability: one million new homes in four years, lower utility bills, expanded preschool access. He backed Proposition 50 with $12 million of his own money. That spending power is his clearest advantage in a field where name recognition and ad buys may matter more than endorsements. But money alone did not carry him past single digits in the 2020 presidential primary, where he spent over $250 million and won zero delegates outside of a fifth-place finish in South Carolina.

Two Republicans Are Beating Tom Steyer in Head-to-Head Polls. Why Is the Market at 64%?

Here is the fact that should give every Steyer contract holder pause: the most recent 270toWin poll, conducted from March 18 to April 12, 2026, places Steyer at 14.7% among likely voters. Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, leads the entire field at 18%. Chad Bianco, the Riverside County Sheriff known for his alignment with Donald Trump, holds 11.3%. Steyer is not first. He is not second. He is third.

The market's 64% implied probability therefore rests on a chain of events that has not yet begun: enough Democrats drop out to consolidate the progressive vote behind Steyer, he surpasses Hilton in the jungle primary to secure a top-two finish, and then he wins a general election against a Republican in a state that hasn't elected one as governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. Each link in that chain is plausible. Together, they require a level of party discipline that Democrats are publicly admitting they lack.

The bear case gets worse. Steyer faces attacks over his past investments in private prisons used to detain undocumented immigrants. In a Democratic primary where immigration is a mobilizing issue, that vulnerability could prevent consolidation even if rivals exit. Porter and Villaraigosa each have distinct bases: hers among progressive women in Orange County and coastal suburbs, his among Latino voters statewide. Neither base may transfer cleanly to a billionaire former hedge fund manager.

The bull case is structural and simple: California is a D+25 state. If a Democrat makes the top two, that Democrat almost certainly wins the general. The 23.2% of voters who remain undecided or committed to minor candidates represent a pool that historically breaks along partisan lines as the election approaches. The question is not whether a Democrat can win in November. It is whether a Democrat, specifically Steyer, can survive the jungle primary in June.

At 64%, the market is pricing in Democratic consolidation as a near-certainty. The polling says otherwise. Steyer's path is real, but it requires rivals to do what politicians almost never do voluntarily: quit while they still have a chance. Until Porter, Villaraigosa, or Becerra exits the race, Steyer's market price is a prediction about party behavior, not voter preference. That makes it one of the most mispriced contracts in the 2026 cycle.