Steyer's $132M Can't Buy a Top-Two Finish: Markets Slash His Odds to 38%

Tom Steyer Is Spending $132M to Finish Third in California — Markets Are Starting to Believe It

Tom Steyer has poured $132 million into his campaign for California governor, more than any other candidate in the field. He is polling third. In a jungle primary where only two candidates advance, third place is elimination. Three weeks before the June 2 vote, the most expensive gubernatorial campaign in California history sits outside the advancement line.

Prediction markets have repriced accordingly. Steyer's implied probability of finishing in the top two has fallen from 51% to 38% over the past three days on Kalshi and Polymarket. That 12-percentage-point collapse follows a longer arc: he peaked near 65% earlier this cycle. The full decline from peak to present represents a 27-point erosion of confidence in a candidate who, on paper, should be buying his way to the general election.

The proof point is stark. Steyer polls at roughly 15%, behind Xavier Becerra at 20.3% and Steve Hilton at 19.6%, according to recent polling aggregates. He is outspending both rivals combined. The money is not converting to votes.

California's Jungle Primary Leaves No Room for Error — Steyer's Third-Place Standing Is Nearly Disqualifying

California's top-two primary sends exactly two candidates to the November general election regardless of party. There is no consolation bracket. A candidate polling third with three weeks remaining must pass at least one rival to survive. For Steyer, that means closing a gap of roughly 4.5 points against either Becerra or Hilton while fending off challengers from below, including Eric Swalwell at 13.3% and Chad Bianco at roughly 13%.

The compressed timeline makes this harder than the raw numbers suggest. Mail ballots are already in voters' hands. Axios reported on May 10 that the succession fight has turned ugly, with negative coverage of Steyer's investment history gaining traction. Voters who have already returned their ballots cannot change their minds regardless of what Steyer's $132 million buys in the final two weeks.

Historically, candidates trailing in California jungle primaries at the three-week mark rarely vault into the top two. The format rewards candidates with distinct coalitions rather than broad name recognition purchased through advertising. Steyer's problem is structural: he is competing for Democratic votes against Becerra, Porter, and Swalwell while a unified Republican vote coalesces around Hilton.

How Steyer's Market Odds Eroded From Frontrunner to Long Shot

The trajectory tells a story of slow correction, not a single shock. Earlier this year, Steyer's odds peaked near 65% when his spending advantage was theoretical and his opposition fragmented. By May 5, this publication reported the probability had already fallen to 57% after two debates exposed vulnerabilities around his private prison investments and fossil fuel holdings. Over the past six days, the slide accelerated to 38%.

The most recent 12-percentage-point leg down coincides with an Axios report highlighting disputes and negative press around Steyer's candidacy and the continued consolidation of polling showing him stuck in the mid-teens. The market did not lead the polls here; it lagged them. The polling average placed Steyer in third position weeks ago. The prediction market took until this week to fully price in the implication.

What the Live Market Is Saying About Steyer's California Chances Right Now

At 38%, the market still gives Steyer more than a one-in-three chance of advancing. That implies traders see a plausible path even from third place. The reasoning is likely twofold: Steyer's spending could consolidate late-deciding voters in the final mail ballot window, and the Democratic field is fractured enough that one rival could collapse under negative campaigning.

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Kalshi prices Steyer at 39%; Polymarket at 38%. The one-point spread between platforms indicates consensus rather than exploitable divergence. The period low sits at 38%, meaning the current price is the floor. No bounce has materialized.

For context, 38% is the kind of probability assigned to a strong second-choice candidate, not a frontrunner. Steyer has transitioned from the market's favorite to its underdog in fewer than six weeks.

The Case for Steyer: Why 38% Might Be Too Low

Dismissing Steyer entirely requires ignoring the mechanics of spending in mail-ballot elections. California's vote-by-mail infrastructure means a substantial share of ballots are cast in the final two weeks. Steyer's $132 million buys saturation-level television, digital, and ground-game presence that no rival can match.

If Becerra's support proves soft, particularly among moderate Democrats who don't know him well outside Washington, Steyer's name recognition advantage could close the gap. The polling average shows Katie Porter at roughly 10%. If Porter fades or if undecided voters break toward the candidate they've seen most often on their screens, Steyer's path reopens.

The counter is equally forceful: Steyer has been spending at this rate for months and still polls at 15%. Marginal dollars are producing marginal returns. His favorability numbers, damaged by debate attacks and negative press coverage, suggest the spending may now be reinforcing an image voters have already rejected. A candidate who cannot move above 15% with unlimited resources is unlikely to reach 18-20% in three weeks simply by spending more.

Resolution and What to Watch

This market resolves on June 2 when California's primary results are certified. The two candidates with the most votes advance. For Steyer, the math is binary: finish first or second, or go home. At 38%, the market says he is more likely to be eliminated than to advance. That is a remarkable statement about a billionaire who has spent more on this race than most candidates spend on a presidential campaign.

The next polling release will determine whether 38% holds or breaks lower. If Steyer remains stuck in the mid-teens while Hilton and Becerra consolidate above him, expect the probability to drift toward 25-30%. If a new poll shows movement into the 17-18% range, the market could stabilize or recover modestly. The price is now a real-time referendum on whether money alone can overcome a third-place position in a format designed to punish it.