Arbitragearbitrageusalienspolymarketkalshi
U.S. aliens arb: 5.4% ROI on confirmation before 2027
No profit opportunity on U.S. confirmation of aliens before 2027 with current prices.
February 25, 20261 min readPrediction Hunt
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? contracts currently show no profit opportunity.
Buy Yes on Polymarket at 1600¢. Buy No on Kalshi at 7700¢. Total cost: 9300¢. No profit per contract.
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The Math
- Buy Yes (Polymarket): 1600¢
- Buy No (Kalshi): 7700¢
- Total cost: 9300¢
- Payout: 10000¢ (one side always wins)
- Gross profit: -9200¢
- Net ROI: -100% on deployed capital
Risks
No profit potential exists at current prices. Market conditions may change, impacting future opportunities.
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