Wilson Drops to 27% as Mace Leads SC Governor Primary Polls

Alan Wilson Is No Longer the Frontrunner in South Carolina's 2026 Governor Race, and the Market Just Admitted It

Alan Wilson has served as South Carolina's Attorney General for four terms, making him the longest-serving AG in state history. That institutional pedigree made him the early presumptive favorite for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. But with the June 9 primary now roughly 11 weeks away, prediction markets have abruptly repriced his chances downward.

Wilson's implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket has fallen from 36% to 27% over the past three days, a 9-percentage-point decline that represents the sharpest move in this market since the primary field solidified. Kalshi currently prices him at 28%, while Polymarket sits at 26%. The cross-platform consistency suggests this isn't noise or a single large bet washing through one venue. It's a consensus repricing.

This is not a reaction to breaking news. Wilson's campaign has been quiet since he named State Senator Mike Reichenbach as his running mate on January 9. No scandal, no viral debate moment, no endorsement loss. The market is simply catching up to a reality that polling captured weeks ago.

The Polls Were Already There: How March Data Put Nancy Mace Ahead of Alan Wilson

The most recent Quantus Insights poll, conducted March 10-11, puts Wilson at 17.6% among likely Republican primary voters. U.S. Representative Nancy Mace leads him at 19.2%. That 1.6-percentage-point Mace advantage is within any reasonable margin of error, but the directional message is clear: Wilson does not lead his own primary.

Consider the gap that existed before this week's correction. A market pricing Wilson at 36% implied he was the clear frontrunner with roughly double the chance of his nearest competitor. His actual polling support at 17.6% told a completely different story: a crowded five-way race where no candidate has broken away. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette polled at 13.2%, U.S. Representative Ralph Norman at 9.4%, and State Representative Josh Kimbrell also remained in the field. The combined support of the non-Wilson, non-Mace candidates exceeds either leader's individual share.

The February polling from National Public Affairs told a different story. That survey, conducted February 2-5, had Wilson at 23.0% and Mace at 17.0%, a 6-percentage-point Wilson lead. The March data represents a real swing: Wilson shed more than 5 points while Mace gained more than 2. If you believe the trajectory rather than any single snapshot, Wilson's position has deteriorated materially over the past month.

The Bull Case for Wilson: Why 27% Might Be an Overcorrection

Before writing off the four-term Attorney General, the strongest case for Wilson deserves genuine consideration. First, name recognition in statewide down-ballot primaries is a powerful asset, and Wilson has won four consecutive statewide races. No other candidate in this field has that track record. Mace represents a single congressional district, and her national profile, shaped partly by controversy, cuts both ways with South Carolina's conservative primary electorate.

Second, the Quantus Insights poll shows 40% of the vote scattered across candidates polling in the single digits or as undecided. In a race this fragmented, late consolidation could reshape the outcome. Wilson's institutional relationships with county party chairs, the donor class, and the legal community give him organizational advantages that polls taken 13 weeks before a primary may not fully capture. His selection of Reichenbach, a Florence-area senator, was a deliberate play for Pee Dee region voters, according to South Carolina Public Radio.

Third, if this race goes to a runoff (which South Carolina requires if no candidate exceeds 50%), Wilson's statewide network could prove more durable than Mace's congressional coalition. A 27% implied probability in a five-candidate field is not an unreasonable floor for someone with Wilson's resume. The question is whether the organizational machine can overcome the polling momentum working against him.

Wilson's Price Trajectory and What Comes Next

The 3-day chart tells a clean story: Wilson held at 36% before falling steadily to the current 27% floor with no bounce. The period low matches the current price, meaning buyers have not yet stepped in to defend this level. That absence of buying pressure is itself informative. In markets that resolve in approximately 5 weeks (the market resolution date is May 1, 2026, ahead of the June 9 primary), participants tend to trade with increasing conviction as polling data accumulates.

What would push Wilson's price lower from here? Another poll confirming or widening Mace's lead would likely send him into the low 20s. A major endorsement for Mace from a figure like Governor Henry McMaster or Senator Tim Scott could accelerate the repricing. Conversely, Wilson would need a poll showing him back in front, or a Mace stumble, to reclaim the 30% range.

At 27%, the market is pricing Wilson as a plausible but no longer probable nominee in a fragmented field. That's a far more honest reading than 36% ever was. The real-world evidence, from the February fade to the March polling deficit, all points in one direction: Wilson's path to the governor's mansion runs through a primary where he's no longer setting the pace. The market finally agrees.