Live prediction market odds for Heat vs. Hawks. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-26
This market resolved on 2025-12-26. Miami Heat was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 71%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Miami HeatWINNER | 99% | 43% |
Atlanta Hawks | 1% | 58% |
Heat vs. Hawks was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Miami Heat led the market at 71% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Atlanta Hawks at 29%.
Miami Heat held the lead at 71% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks at 29% were the next closest contenders. The 56.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Miami Heat: 99¢ on Kalshi, 43¢ on Polymarket. Atlanta Hawks: 1¢ on Kalshi, 58¢ on Polymarket. The 56.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 71¢ meant the market estimated a 71% chance that Miami Heat would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 71¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 41% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Miami Heat
70.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Atlanta wins the Miami vs Atlanta professional basketball game originally scheduled for Dec 26, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
