Live prediction market odds for Heat vs. Mavericks. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-03
This market resolved on 2025-12-03. Dallas Mavericks was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 69%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Dallas MavericksWINNER | 99% | 39% |
Miami Heat | 1% | 61% |
Heat vs. Mavericks was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Dallas Mavericks led the market at 69% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Miami Heat at 31%.
Dallas Mavericks held the lead at 69% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat at 31% were the next closest contenders. The 60.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Dallas Mavericks: 99¢ on Kalshi, 39¢ on Polymarket. Miami Heat: 1¢ on Kalshi, 61¢ on Polymarket. The 60.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 69¢ meant the market estimated a 69% chance that Dallas Mavericks would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 69¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 45% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Dallas Mavericks
69.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Dallas wins the Miami vs Dallas professional basketball game originally scheduled for Dec 3, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
