The markets are settling into familiar territory — Kansas City still leads the pack, with Buffalo close behind. Traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket seem to agree: until proven otherwise, the road to the Lombardi Trophy runs through Mahomes and Reid.

Buffalo’s staying power in the top tier says a lot. Bettors keep circling back, even after a few disappointing playoff runs. There’s belief that Josh Allen will eventually get over the hump, but not quite the conviction that it’ll happen this season.

Right behind them are Philadelphia, Detroit, and Indianapolis — three teams that have all flashed enough potential to make a run. Philly’s experience, Detroit’s momentum, and Indy’s youth give each a clear storyline, but markets aren’t fully buying any of them yet.

What stands out most is how closely the exchanges are aligned. Kalshi and Polymarket traders are mostly in sync, with only minor differences from team to team. That tight spread suggests a mature, efficient market — but it also means even small moves might matter.

For now, Kansas City sits comfortably on top, Buffalo’s right there, and everyone else is fighting to prove they belong in the same tier. Expect movement once the season kicks off — but for now, the markets are saying the same thing they’ve said for years: the Chiefs are still the team to beat.