Question 1

What factors influence the prediction of the best coding model?

Accepted Answer

Factors include technological advancements, research breakthroughs, and market adoption rates. Competition among AI companies also plays a significant role in shaping predictions.

Question 2

How do prediction markets work for this event?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of which company will excel. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of each company's success.

Question 3

Why is the end of 2026 a significant deadline for coding models?

Accepted Answer

The end of 2026 marks a pivotal point for AI development, as many companies aim to release their latest innovations by then. This timeline aligns with industry expectations for maturity in AI capabilities.

Question 4

What is "Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Anthropic leads at 38% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Google at 18%, OpenAI at 20%, DeepSeek at 3%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Anthropic currently leads at 38% implied probability. Behind Anthropic, Google at 18% and OpenAI at 20% and DeepSeek at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 22.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Anthropic: 43¢ on Kalshi, 33¢ on Polymarket. Google: 16¢ on Kalshi, 20¢ on Polymarket. OpenAI: 31¢ on Kalshi, 9¢ on Polymarket. DeepSeek: 4¢ on Kalshi, 2¢ on Polymarket. The 22.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Anthropic is at 38%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 38¢ means the market estimates a 38% probability that Anthropic will be the outcome. Buying one share at 38¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 163% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	42.5%	42¢	43¢	57¢	58¢
Polymarket	32.5%	30¢	35¢	65¢	70¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	15.5%	15¢	16¢	84¢	85¢
Polymarket	20.0%	15¢	25¢	75¢	85¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	33.0%	31¢	35¢	65¢	69¢
Polymarket	8.5%	5¢	12¢	88¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.5%	3¢	4¢	96¢	97¢
Polymarket	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	2.0%	1¢	3¢	97¢	99¢

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

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