Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic VP nominee?

Accepted Answer

Factors include current political trends, candidate popularity, and potential endorsements. Polling data and public perception also play significant roles in shaping market expectations.

Question 2

How does the Democratic VP nominee affect the presidential election?

Accepted Answer

The choice of VP can sway undecided voters and bolster the presidential candidate's appeal. A strong nominee may also enhance voter turnout and party unity.

Question 3

When will the Democratic VP nominee be officially announced?

Accepted Answer

The official announcement typically occurs during the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled for the summer of 2028. However, speculation and market movements will intensify leading up to that date.

Question 4

What is "Who will be the Democratic VP nominee in 2028?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will be the Democratic VP nominee in 2028 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Gavin Newsom leads at 15% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, Kamala Harris at 3%, Jon Ossoff at 5%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Democratic VP nominee in 2028?"?

Accepted Answer

Gavin Newsom currently leads at 15% implied probability. Behind Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% and Kamala Harris at 3% and Jon Ossoff at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 19.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will be the Democratic VP nominee in 2028?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Gavin Newsom: 5¢ on Kalshi, 25¢ on Polymarket. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8¢ on Kalshi, 9¢ on Polymarket. Kamala Harris: 1¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. Jon Ossoff: 5¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 19.7% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Gavin Newsom is at 15%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 15¢ means the market estimates a 15% probability that Gavin Newsom will be the outcome. Buying one share at 15¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 567% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢
Polymarket	25.0%	25¢	25¢	75¢	75¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	8.5%	8¢	9¢	91¢	92¢
Polymarket	9.0%	9¢	9¢	91¢	91¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.5%	1¢	2¢	98¢	99¢
Polymarket	5.5%	5¢	6¢	95¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	4.0%	3¢	5¢	95¢	97¢
Polymarket	5.0%	5¢	5¢	95¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	6.5%	6¢	7¢	93¢	94¢
Polymarket	4.0%	4¢	4¢	96¢	96¢

Who will be the Democratic VP nominee in 2028?

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