Live prediction market odds for Who will run for public office in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will run for public office in 2026. This event is crucial as potential candidates could shape the political landscape and influence key legislative agendas leading up to the elections.
Mark Cuban leads Who will run for public office in 2026 at 8.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Glenn Youngkin (4.8%), and Matt Gaetz (10.0%). A 9.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Candidates may be influenced by current political climate, public opinion, and their own career aspirations. Additionally, endorsements and party support play significant roles in determining who enters the race.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. The prices reflect collective sentiment about the probability of candidates announcing their candidacies.
The 2026 elections will determine key congressional seats and potentially impact the balance of power in Washington. The outcomes could also influence major policy decisions on issues like healthcare, climate change, and economic recovery.
Who will run for public office in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mark Cuban leads at 9% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Glenn Youngkin at 5%, Matt Gaetz at 10%.
Mark Cuban currently leads at 9% implied probability. Behind Mark Cuban, Glenn Youngkin at 5% and Matt Gaetz at 10% are the next closest contenders. The 9.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Mark Cuban
8.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Matt Gaetz has announced they will run for an elected public office in the 2026 election before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
