Question 1

What factors influence the candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination?

Accepted Answer

Candidates' decisions often depend on polling data, party dynamics, and current political climate. Endorsements and fundraising capabilities also play a crucial role in determining who enters the race.

Question 2

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of candidates running?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate bets placed by participants who speculate on candidates' chances of entering the race. The odds reflect collective sentiment and analysis based on various political indicators.

Question 3

Why is the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination significant?

Accepted Answer

The nomination will set the stage for the party's platform and strategy in the upcoming election. It also influences voter engagement and party unity as candidates vie for support.

Question 4

What is "Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). Gavin Newsom leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 32%, Kamala Harris at 31%, Jon Ossoff at 24%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?"?

Accepted Answer

Gavin Newsom currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 32% and Kamala Harris at 31% and Jon Ossoff at 24% are the next closest contenders. The 80.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion: Gavin Newsom: 88¢ on Kalshi, 25¢ on Polymarket. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 56¢ on Kalshi, 9¢ on Polymarket. Kamala Harris: 57¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. Jon Ossoff: 44¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 80.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Gavin Newsom is at 56%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 56¢ means the market estimates a 56% probability that Gavin Newsom will be the outcome. Buying one share at 56¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 79% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	87.5%	87¢	88¢	12¢	13¢
Polymarket	25.0%	25¢	25¢	75¢	75¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	54.5%	53¢	56¢	44¢	47¢
Polymarket	9.0%	9¢	9¢	91¢	91¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	59.0%	57¢	61¢	39¢	43¢
Polymarket	5.5%	5¢	6¢	95¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	42.0%	40¢	44¢	56¢	60¢
Polymarket	5.0%	5¢	5¢	95¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	82.0%	80¢	84¢	16¢	20¢
Polymarket	4.0%	4¢	4¢	96¢	96¢

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

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