Live prediction market odds for Will Tony Gonzales leave Congress before the midterms?. Compare prices across Kalshi and PredictIt.
Kalshi / PredictIt
2026-03-31
Kalshi and PredictIt are tracking whether Tony Gonzales will leave Congress before the midterms. This event is critical as it could impact party dynamics and voter sentiment leading up to the elections.
Yes is priced at 19.5% implied probability for Will Tony Gonzales leave Congress before the midterms. A 23.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors may include personal decisions, political pressures, or changes in public support. Additionally, upcoming elections and party strategies could influence his choice.
His departure could create a vacancy that may shift party control in the House. It could also lead to a scramble for his seat, impacting campaign strategies.
A departure can alter the balance of power and affect legislative priorities. It may also energize opponents and change voter turnout in the upcoming elections.
Will Tony Gonzales leave Congress before the midterms is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, PredictIt). Yes leads at 20% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Yes currently leads at 20% implied probability. The 23.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Yes
19.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Tony Gonzales leaves Congress before the midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
Tony Gonzales must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
