Live prediction market odds for 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.
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Polymarket / Opinion
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Opinion are tracking the likelihood of a 10.0 or above earthquake occurring before the end of 2026. Such seismic events can have catastrophic impacts on communities and infrastructure, making this a critical area of concern for scientists and policymakers alike.
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 is priced at 6.3% implied probability for the “10.0 or above earthquake before 2027” event. A 6.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Earthquakes are influenced by tectonic plate movements, geological stress, and historical seismic activity in a region. Monitoring these factors helps scientists assess potential risks.
Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and data to estimate the probability of specific events, such as earthquakes. They can reflect public sentiment and expert analysis regarding seismic risks.
A 10.0 or above earthquake could lead to widespread destruction, loss of life, and long-term economic impacts. Infrastructure damage and humanitarian crises would likely follow such a catastrophic event.
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion). 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 leads at 6% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 currently leads at 6% implied probability. The 6.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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10.0 or above earthquake before 2027
6.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
