Live prediction market odds for 2025 Bolivian Presidential Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-10-20
This market resolved on 2025-10-20. Rodrigo Paz was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Rodrigo PazWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Andrónico Rodríguez | 1% | 50% |
Branko Marinković | 1% | 50% |
Carlos Mesa | 1% |
2025 Bolivian Presidential Election was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Rodrigo Paz led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Andrónico Rodríguez at 26%, Branko Marinković at 26%, Carlos Mesa at 26%.
Rodrigo Paz held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Rodrigo Paz, Andrónico Rodríguez at 26% and Branko Marinković at 26% and Carlos Mesa at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Rodrigo Paz: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Andrónico Rodríguez: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Branko Marinković: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Carlos Mesa: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Rodrigo Paz would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Rodrigo Paz
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Luis Arce is sworn in as President of Bolivia pursuant to the 2025 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Chi Hyun Chung | 1% | 50% |
Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga | 1% | 50% |
Luis Arce | 1% | 50% |
Manfred Reyes Villa | 1% | 50% |
Samuel Doria Medina | 1% | 50% |
