Live prediction market odds for 2025 California Redistricting Referendum. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-11-04
This market resolved on 2025-11-04. California redistricting referendum passes was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
California redistricting referendum passesWINNER | 99% | 100% |
2025 California Redistricting Referendum was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). California redistricting referendum passes led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution.
California redistricting referendum passes held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: California redistricting referendum passes: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that California redistricting referendum passes would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “2025 California Redistricting Referendum” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2.5K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Proposition 50 in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
California redistricting referendum passes
99.5% avg
