What was "2025 Chilean Presidential Election" and why did it matter?
2025 Chilean Presidential Election was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). José Antonio Kast led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Carolina Tohá at 26%, Jaime Mulet at 26%, Eduardo Artés at 25%.
What moved the odds on "2025 Chilean Presidential Election"?
José Antonio Kast held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind José Antonio Kast, Carolina Tohá at 26% and Jaime Mulet at 26% and Eduardo Artés at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 50.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What were the final odds for "2025 Chilean Presidential Election" across platforms?
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt: José Antonio Kast: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket, 99¢ on PredictIt. Carolina Tohá: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Jaime Mulet: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Eduardo Artés: 0¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 50.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What did 99% odds for José Antonio Kast mean?
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that José Antonio Kast would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
