Live prediction market odds for 2025 Government Shutdown. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-31
This market resolved on 2025-12-31. US government shutdown in 2025 was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
US government shutdown in 2025WINNER | 99% | 100% |
2025 Government Shutdown was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). US government shutdown in 2025 led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution.
US government shutdown in 2025 held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: US government shutdown in 2025: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that US government shutdown in 2025 would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
US government shutdown in 2025
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the government is shutdown at any 10:00 AM ET before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
