Live prediction market odds for 2026 Farrer by-election winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the 2026 Farrer by-election. This election will determine representation in Parliament, influencing legislative priorities and party dynamics in the lead-up to the next general election.
Michelle Milthorpe leads the “2026 Farrer by-election winner” event at 40.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Helen Dalton (0.7%), and Rebecca Scriven (0.4%). A 2.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The Farrer by-election is crucial as it will fill a vacant seat in Parliament. The outcome could shift the balance of power among political parties.
The Farrer by-election is scheduled for December 31, 2026. This timing coincides with the end of the year, potentially affecting voter turnout.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, party support, and current political issues. Polling data and campaign strategies will also play significant roles leading up to the election.
2026 Farrer by-election winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Michelle Milthorpe leads at 40% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Helen Dalton at 1%, Rebecca Scriven at 0%.
Michelle Milthorpe currently leads at 40% implied probability. Behind Michelle Milthorpe, Helen Dalton at 1% and Rebecca Scriven at 0% are the next closest contenders. A 2.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Michelle Milthorpe
40.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the Family First Party wins the 2026 Farrer by-election in Australia, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
