Live prediction market odds for 2026 Men's World Cup Winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-07-19
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Men's World Cup Winner. The outcome will be influenced by team performances in qualifying matches, player injuries, and tactical developments leading up to the tournament.
Croatia leads the “2026 Men's World Cup Winner” event at 45.4% implied probability. Other contenders include Austria (25.1%), Spain (16.6%), France (15.9%), and Egypt (15.1%). A 89.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The tournament is scheduled to start on June 8, 2026, and conclude on July 19, 2026. It will be hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Odds are influenced by various factors including team rankings, player form, and historical performance. Market participants analyze these elements to speculate on potential outcomes.
Key factors include player injuries, team chemistry, coaching strategies, and performance in international friendlies and qualifiers. Additionally, the draw and match locations can also play a role.
2026 Men's World Cup Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun). Croatia leads at 45% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Austria at 50%, Spain at 17%, France at 16%.
Croatia currently leads at 45% implied probability. Behind Croatia, Austria at 50% and Spain at 17% and France at 16% are the next closest contenders. The 89.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Spain wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.\n\nIf the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.'}
Croatia
45.4% avg
