Live prediction market odds for 2026 NFL MVP. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-01
This market resolved on 2026-02-01. Matthew Stafford was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Matthew StaffordWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Aaron Rodgers | 1% | 50% |
Baker Mayfield | 1% | 50% |
Bijan Robinson | 1% | 50% |
Bo Nix | 1% | 50% |
Brock Purdy | 1% | 50% |
Bryce Young | 1% | 50% |
Caleb Williams | 1% | 50% |
Cameron Ward | 1% | 50% |
CeeDee Lamb | 1% | 50% |
Christian McCaffrey | 1% | 50% |
CJ Stroud | 1% | 50% |
Dak Prescott | 1% | 50% |
Daniel Jones | 1% | 50% |
Derrick Henry | 1% | 50% |
Drake Maye | 1% | 50% |
Geno Smith | 1% | 50% |
Ja'Marr Chase | 1% | 50% |
Jahmyr Gibbs | 1% | 50% |
Jalen Hurts | 1% | 50% |
Jared Goff | 1% | 50% |
Jayden Daniels | 1% | 50% |
JJ McCarthy | 1% | 50% |
Joe Burrow | 1% | 50% |
Jonathan Taylor | 1% | 50% |
Jordan Love | 1% | 50% |
Josh Allen | 1% | 50% |
Justin Fields | 1% | 50% |
Justin Herbert | 1% | 50% |
Justin Jefferson | 1% | 50% |
Kyler Murray | 1% | 50% |
Lamar Jackson | 1% | 50% |
Micah Parsons | 1% | 50% |
Michael Penix Jr | 1% | 50% |
Myles Garrett | 1% | 50% |
Patrick Mahomes | 1% | 50% |
Russell Wilson | 1% | 50% |
Sam Darnold | 1% | 50% |
Saquon Barkley | 1% | 50% |
T.J. Watt | 1% | 50% |
Trevor Lawrence | 1% | 50% |
Tua Tagovailoa | 1% | 50% |
2026 NFL MVP was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Matthew Stafford led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Aaron Rodgers at 26%, Baker Mayfield at 26%, Bijan Robinson at 26%.
Matthew Stafford held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers at 26% and Baker Mayfield at 26% and Bijan Robinson at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Matthew Stafford: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Aaron Rodgers: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Baker Mayfield: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Bijan Robinson: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Matthew Stafford would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Matthew Stafford
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf CJ Stroud wins the Pro football AP Regular Season MVP in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
