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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 99.0% // +$9900.00

Live prediction market odds for 2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?

2026-03-15

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film. This award influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of filmmakers and actors involved in the nominated projects.

A Friend of Dorothy leads the “2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film” event at 25.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Butcher's Stain (25.5%), Jane Austen's Period Drama (25.5%), Two People Exchanging Saliva (25.5%), and The Singers (50.5%). A 99.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
AF
A Friend of Dorothy
50% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
BS
Butcher's Stain
50% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
JA
Jane Austen's Period Drama
50% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
TP
Two People Exchanging Saliva
50% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
TS
The Singers
75% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
100.0%100¢100¢0¢0¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What criteria are used to select nominees for the Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film?

Nominees are chosen based on artistic merit, storytelling, and technical execution. The selection process involves voting by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

How does winning an Oscar affect a filmmaker's career?

Winning an Oscar can elevate a filmmaker's profile, leading to increased funding opportunities and higher-profile projects. It often results in greater visibility within the industry and among audiences.

What factors influence the odds in prediction markets for the Oscars?

Odds are influenced by factors such as critical acclaim, audience reception, and previous awards won by the films. Additionally, industry buzz and marketing campaigns can sway public perception and betting behavior.

What is "2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?" and why does it matter?

2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). A Friend of Dorothy leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Butcher's Stain at 26%, Jane Austen's Period Drama at 26%, Two People Exchanging Saliva at 26%.

What is moving the odds on "2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?"?

A Friend of Dorothy currently leads at 26% implied probability. Behind A Friend of Dorothy, Butcher's Stain at 26% and Jane Austen's Period Drama at 26% and Two People Exchanging Saliva at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 99.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleoscars.orgConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread99.0%
Platforms

Market Rulebook: 2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If A Friend of Dorothy has won best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

Resolution Oracles
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleoscars.orgConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
2
Candidates5
Leader

A Friend of Dorothy

25.5% avg

No price history available