What are the current odds for "2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Two People Exchanging Saliva: 50¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. The Singers: 29¢ on Kalshi, 29¢ on Polymarket. A Friend of Dorothy: 19¢ on Kalshi, 20¢ on Polymarket. Jane Austen's Period Drama: 4¢ on Kalshi, 3¢ on Polymarket. The 1.6% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.

What does it mean that Two People Exchanging Saliva is at 49%?

A price of 49¢ means the market estimates a 49% probability that Two People Exchanging Saliva will be the outcome. Buying one share at 49¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 104% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Kalshi / Polymarket

2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?

2026-03-15

About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film. This award influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of filmmakers and actors involved in the nominated projects.

Two People Exchanging Saliva leads 2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film at 49.3% implied probability. Other contenders include The Singers (28.8%), A Friend of Dorothy (19.5%), Jane Austen's Period Drama (3.5%), and Butcher's Stain (2.2%). A 1.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Live Markets

2 platforms

Two People Exchanging Saliva

49% Avg

50¢

49¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	49.5%	49¢	50¢	50¢	51¢
Polymarket	48.5%	48¢	49¢	51¢	52¢

The Singers

29% Avg

29¢

30¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	28.5%	28¢	29¢	71¢	72¢
Polymarket	28.5%	27¢	30¢	70¢	73¢

A Friend of Dorothy

20% Avg

20¢

21¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	19.5%	19¢	20¢	80¢	81¢
Polymarket	20.0%	19¢	21¢	79¢	81¢

Jane Austen's Period Drama

4% Avg

4¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.5%	3¢	4¢	96¢	97¢
Polymarket	3.5%	3¢	4¢	96¢	97¢

Butcher's Stain

2% Avg

3¢

2¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.5%	2¢	3¢	97¢	98¢
Polymarket	1.5%	1¢	2¢	98¢	99¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What criteria are used to select nominees for the Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film?

Nominees are chosen based on artistic merit, storytelling, and technical execution. The selection process involves voting by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

How does winning an Oscar affect a filmmaker's career?

Winning an Oscar can elevate a filmmaker's profile, leading to increased funding opportunities and higher-profile projects. It often results in greater visibility within the industry and among audiences.

What factors influence the odds in prediction markets for the Oscars?

Odds are influenced by factors such as critical acclaim, audience reception, and previous awards won by the films. Additionally, industry buzz and marketing campaigns can sway public perception and betting behavior.

What is "2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?" and why does it matter?

2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Two People Exchanging Saliva leads at 49% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include The Singers at 29%, A Friend of Dorothy at 20%, Jane Austen's Period Drama at 3%.

What is moving the odds on "2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?"?

Two People Exchanging Saliva currently leads at 49% implied probability. Behind Two People Exchanging Saliva, The Singers at 29% and A Friend of Dorothy at 20% and Jane Austen's Period Drama at 3% are the next closest contenders. A 1.6% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.

Smart Trade Router

Outcome

Amount

Max Price (opt)

Resolution Oracles

Polymarket

UMA Optimistic Oracle oscars.org Consensus of Sources

Read Full Market Rulebooks

Stats

Spread1.6%

Platforms2

Candidates5

Leader

Two People Exchanging Saliva

49.3% avg

Market Rulebook: 2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If A Friend of Dorothy has won best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

Polymarket

Primary Rule

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracleoscars.orgConsensus of Sources

About This Market

Platform

Implied %

Yes — Bid / Ask

No — Bid / Ask

Kalshi

49.5%

49¢

50¢

51¢

Polymarket

48.5%

Platform

Implied %

Yes — Bid / Ask

No — Bid / Ask

Kalshi

28.5%

Polymarket

28.5%

Platform

Implied %

Yes — Bid / Ask

No — Bid / Ask

Kalshi

19.5%

Polymarket

20.0%

Platform

Implied %

Yes — Bid / Ask

No — Bid / Ask

Kalshi

3.5%

Polymarket

3.5%

Platform

Implied %

Yes — Bid / Ask

No — Bid / Ask

Kalshi

2.5%

Polymarket

1.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

What criteria are used to select nominees for the Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film?

Nominees are chosen based on artistic merit, storytelling, and technical execution. The selection process involves voting by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

How does winning an Oscar affect a filmmaker's career?

What factors influence the odds in prediction markets for the Oscars?

What is "2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?" and why does it matter?

What is moving the odds on "2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?"?

Market Rulebook: 2026 Oscar for best Live Action Short Film?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If A Friend of Dorothy has won best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Polymarket

Primary Rule

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracleoscars.orgConsensus of Sources