Live prediction market odds for 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2028-11-07
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. This event is pivotal as it will shape the party's direction and strategy leading into the general election, influenced by voter sentiment and key endorsements.
Beto O’Rourke is priced at 49.8% implied probability for the “2028 Democratic presidential nominee” event. A 99.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate performances in debates, and endorsements from influential party figures play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, public sentiment and major political events can sway voter preferences.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events, like political nominations. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The official nominee will be determined at the Democratic National Convention in 2028. This event typically occurs in the summer before the general election, following a series of primaries and caucuses.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Beto O’Rourke leads at 50% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Beto O’Rourke currently leads at 50% implied probability. The 99.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Beto O'Rourke wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Beto O’Rourke
49.8% avg
