Live prediction market odds for 3rd place in first round of Texas Republican Senate Primary?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-03
This market resolved on 2026-03-03. Wesley Hunt was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Wesley HuntWINNER | 99% | 100% |
John Cornyn | 1% | 50% |
Ken Paxton | 1% | 50% |
3rd place in first round of Texas Republican Senate Primary was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Wesley Hunt led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include John Cornyn at 26%, Ken Paxton at 26%.
Wesley Hunt held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Wesley Hunt, John Cornyn at 26% and Ken Paxton at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Wesley Hunt: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. John Cornyn: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Ken Paxton: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Wesley Hunt would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Wesley Hunt
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Ken Paxton finishes in 3rd place in first round of the 2026 Texas Senate Republican Primary in Texas according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ranking is determined by the specified counting method. For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage. Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to No.
