About This Market
Polymarket and Opinion are tracking the likelihood of a 9.0 or above earthquake occurring before the end of 2026. Such seismic events can have catastrophic impacts on communities, infrastructure, and economies, making this a critical area of interest for risk assessment and preparedness planning.
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027 is priced at 14.3% implied probability for the “9.0 or above earthquake before 2027” event. A 7.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
