Live prediction market odds for Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Predict.fun
2028-01-01
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
$200M leads the “Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch” event at 72.9% implied probability. Other contenders include $3B (50.6%), $600M (50.0%), $2.5B (49.0%), and $400M (38.0%). A 90.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). $200M leads at 73% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include $3B at 95%, $600M at 77%, $2.5B at 94%.
$200M currently leads at 73% implied probability. Behind $200M, $3B at 95% and $600M at 77% and $2.5B at 94% are the next closest contenders. The 90.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: $200M: 74¢ on Polymarket. $3B: 95¢ on Polymarket. $600M: 77¢ on Polymarket. $2.5B: 94¢ on Polymarket. The 90.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 73¢ means the market estimates a 73% probability that $200M will be the outcome. Buying one share at 73¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 37% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community
$200M
72.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract\'s governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn\'t launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".'}
