Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the AFC South Division Winner?

Accepted Answer

Team performance, player injuries, and head-to-head matchups significantly impact the odds. Additionally, betting trends and expert analyses can sway market perceptions.

Question 2

How does the AFC South Division Winner affect playoff scenarios?

Accepted Answer

Winning the division secures a playoff berth, which can lead to home-field advantage in the postseason. This outcome can also shape the overall playoff picture, affecting matchups and strategies.

Question 3

When does the AFC South Division Winner market close?

Accepted Answer

The market will close on January 4, 2027, coinciding with the conclusion of the regular NFL season. Final standings will determine the division winner and settle the market.

Question 4

What is "AFC South Division Winner" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

AFC South Division Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Houston Texans leads at 33% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jacksonville Jaguars at 31%, Jacksonville Jaguars at 31%, Indianapolis Colts at 17%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "AFC South Division Winner"?

Accepted Answer

Houston Texans currently leads at 33% implied probability. Behind Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars at 31% and Jacksonville Jaguars at 31% and Indianapolis Colts at 17% are the next closest contenders. The 7.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "AFC South Division Winner" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Houston Texans: 37¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. Jacksonville Jaguars: 33¢ on Kalshi, 28¢ on Polymarket. Jacksonville Jaguars: 33¢ on Kalshi, 28¢ on Polymarket. Indianapolis Colts: 18¢ on Kalshi, 17¢ on Polymarket. The 7.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Houston Texans is at 33%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 33¢ means the market estimates a 33% probability that Houston Texans will be the outcome. Buying one share at 33¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 203% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	36.5%	36¢	37¢	63¢	64¢
Polymarket	29.5%	10¢	49¢	51¢	90¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	32.5%	32¢	33¢	67¢	68¢
Polymarket	28.0%	20¢	36¢	64¢	80¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	32.5%	32¢	33¢	67¢	68¢
Polymarket	28.0%	20¢	36¢	64¢	80¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	17.5%	17¢	18¢	82¢	83¢
Polymarket	17.0%	8¢	26¢	74¢	92¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	17.5%	17¢	18¢	82¢	83¢
Polymarket	17.0%	8¢	26¢	74¢	92¢

AFC South Division Winner

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Market Rulebook: AFC South Division Winner