Question 1

What metrics are used to measure AI capability growth?

Accepted Answer

Metrics may include performance scores, benchmarks in machine learning tasks, and advancements in natural language processing. These indicators help assess the overall progress in AI technology.

Question 2

Why is the July 2026 deadline significant?

Accepted Answer

The deadline aligns with various industry forecasts and technological milestones expected to be achieved by mid-2026. It serves as a critical point for evaluating the pace of AI development.

Question 3

How do external factors influence AI capability growth?

Accepted Answer

Factors such as funding levels, research breakthroughs, and regulatory changes can significantly impact the speed of AI advancements. Market dynamics and public interest also play a role in shaping development trajectories.

Question 4

What is "AI capability growth before July?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

AI capability growth before July is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). At least 1525 score leads at 11% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include At least 1550 score at 5%, At least 1575 score at 2%, At least 1700 score at 2%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "AI capability growth before July?"?

Accepted Answer

At least 1525 score currently leads at 11% implied probability. Behind At least 1525 score, At least 1550 score at 5% and At least 1575 score at 2% and At least 1700 score at 2% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "AI capability growth before July?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi: At least 1525 score: 11¢ on Kalshi. At least 1550 score: 5¢ on Kalshi. At least 1575 score: 2¢ on Kalshi. At least 1700 score: 2¢ on Kalshi. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.

Question 7

What does it mean that At least 1525 score is at 11%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 11¢ means the market estimates a 11% probability that At least 1525 score will be the outcome. Buying one share at 11¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 809% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

AI capability growth before July?

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