Live prediction market odds for AL-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the AL-01 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race could influence party control in Congress and reflects broader national political trends leading up to the election.
Republican Party leads the “AL-01 House winner” event at 95.6% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 3.8%. A 4.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the perceived probability of each candidate winning.
The AL-01 House seat is crucial for both major parties as it contributes to the overall balance of power in Congress. Winning this seat can impact legislative agendas and party strategies.
AL-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 96% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 4%.
Republican Party currently leads at 96% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 4.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
95.6% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AL-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
