Live prediction market odds for AL-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AL-02 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives, impacting legislative agendas and party strategies.
Republican Party leads the “AL-02 House winner” event at 49.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 24.5%. A 49.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data leading up to the election. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment.
The AL-02 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date aligns with the general election day for federal offices.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the race's outcome. Prices reflect the collective sentiment of traders regarding the likelihood of each candidate winning.
AL-02 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 50% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 25%.
Republican Party currently leads at 50% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 25% are the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Republican Party
49.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AL-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
