Live prediction market odds for AL-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AL-04 House race set for November 3, 2026. This contest will be pivotal in determining party control in the House of Representatives, influencing legislative agendas and national policies.
Republican Party leads the “AL-04 House winner” event at 94.7% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 3.5%. A 4.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate visibility, and party support are key factors affecting the odds. Additionally, local issues and national political trends can sway voter sentiment.
The outcome could shift the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A change in control may lead to significant changes in legislative priorities and governance.
Voters will cast their ballots on November 3, 2026. Results will be tallied shortly after polls close, with official announcements expected that evening.
AL-04 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 95% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 4%.
Republican Party currently leads at 95% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 4.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
94.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AL-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
