Live prediction market odds for AL-05 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AL-05 House election scheduled for November 3, 2026. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect broader national trends in voter sentiment leading up to the election.
Republican Party leads the “AL-05 House winner” event at 87.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 12.3%. A 7.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include voter turnout, campaign funding, and the political climate closer to the election date. Local issues and candidate popularity will also play significant roles.
Prediction markets aggregate bets placed by participants, reflecting their expectations based on available information. As new data emerges, such as polling results and candidate announcements, odds can fluctuate.
The AL-05 House election is significant as it may impact party control in the House of Representatives. Results from this election could signal shifts in voter priorities and party strategies leading into future elections.
AL-05 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 88% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 12%.
Republican Party currently leads at 88% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 12% are the next closest contenders. The 7.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Republican Party
87.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AL-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
