Live prediction market odds for AL-06 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Republican Party leads the “AL-06 House winner” event at 92.3% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 6.4%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
AL-06 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 92% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 6%.
Republican Party currently leads at 92% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Republican Party: 94¢ on Kalshi, 91¢ on Polymarket. Democratic Party: 5¢ on Kalshi, 8¢ on Polymarket. The 3.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 92¢ means the market estimates a 92% probability that Republican Party will be the outcome. Buying one share at 92¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 9% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
92.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AL-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
