Live prediction market odds for AL-07 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AL-07 House election. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment in the region leading up to the 2026 elections.
Republican Party leads the “AL-07 House winner” event at 52.3% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 49.0%. A 70.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements also play a crucial role in shaping market perceptions.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities and governance. Additionally, it serves as a bellwether for broader electoral trends in the 2026 cycle.
The AL-07 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election date, when multiple federal and state offices will be contested.
AL-07 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 49%.
Republican Party currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 49% are the next closest contenders. The 70.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
52.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AL-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
