Live prediction market odds for AL-07 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AL-07 House election. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment in the region leading up to the 2026 elections.
Democratic Party leads the “AL-07 House winner” event at 78.5% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 18.8%. A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements also play a crucial role in shaping market perceptions.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities and governance. Additionally, it serves as a bellwether for broader electoral trends in the 2026 cycle.
The AL-07 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election date, when multiple federal and state offices will be contested.
AL-07 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 79% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 19%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 79% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 19% are the next closest contenders. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
78.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AL-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
