Live prediction market odds for Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-19
This market resolved on 2026-05-19. Barry Moore was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 93%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner for the upcoming election on May 19, 2026. This primary will play a crucial role in shaping the Republican Party's strategy and candidate lineup ahead of the general election, influencing voter turnout and party dynamics in Alabama.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Barry MooreWINNER | 91% | 95% |
Steve Marshall | 0% | 50% |
Morgan Murphy | 0% | 50% |
Jared Hudson |
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign funding are key factors affecting the odds. Additionally, public sentiment and major events leading up to the primary can shift market perceptions.
The primary winner will represent the Republican Party in the general election, making it critical for party unity and strategy. A strong candidate can energize the base and attract swing voters, potentially affecting overall election outcomes.
The primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. This date is significant as it precedes the general election and will determine the Republican nominee for the Senate seat.
Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Barry Moore led the market at 93% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Steve Marshall at 25%, Morgan Murphy at 25%, Jared Hudson at 8%.
Barry Moore held the lead at 93% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Barry Moore, Steve Marshall at 25% and Morgan Murphy at 25% and Jared Hudson at 8% were the next closest contenders. The 49.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Steve Marshall wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Alabama Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama. If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
| 6% |
Barry Moore
93.0% avg
