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Live prediction market odds for Alaska Governor Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Alaska Governor Election Winner

2026-11-03

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Alaska Governor Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it will determine the leadership direction of Alaska, influencing state policies and governance for years to come.

Bernadette Wilson leads the “Alaska Governor Election Winner” event at 26.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Tom Begich (23.5%), Adam Crum (20.5%), Lisa Murkowski (15.1%), and Treg Taylor (13.9%). A 39.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
BW
Bernadette Wilson
26% Avg
Kalshi29¢
Polymarket26¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
27.0%25¢29¢71¢75¢
PolymarketPolymarket
25.5%25¢26¢74¢75¢
TB
Tom BegichARB
24% Avg
Kalshi24¢
Polymarket27¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
22.5%21¢24¢76¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
26.0%25¢27¢73¢75¢
AC
Adam CrumARB
26% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket60¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%1¢2¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%40¢60¢40¢60¢
LM
Lisa MurkowskiARB
18% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket40¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
35.0%30¢40¢60¢70¢
TT
Treg TaylorARB
14% Avg
Kalshi16¢
Polymarket13¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
15.5%15¢16¢84¢85¢
PolymarketPolymarket
12.5%12¢13¢87¢88¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. She is the founder of Denali Disposal, a waste management company in Anchorage. She is relevant to this prediction market as a contender in the upcoming gubernatorial race.

About Tom Begich

Tom Begich is a Democratic candidate for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. He served as Minority Leader of the Alaska State Senate from 2019 to 2023. His extensive experience in public service and leadership roles makes him a significant contender in this race.

About Treg Taylor

Treg Taylor is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. He served as Alaska's Attorney General from 2021 until his resignation in August 2025. His tenure was marked by legal actions against federal policies and a focus on public safety, including a significant reduction in violent crime during his term.

About Matt Heilala

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Alaska Governor Election?

The Alaska Governor Election can shape state policies on key issues such as resource management and education. The outcome may also impact Alaska's relationship with federal authorities.

When is the Alaska Governor Election scheduled?

The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.

How do prediction markets influence perceptions of the election?

Prediction markets aggregate public sentiment and expert analysis, providing insights into potential outcomes. Shifts in odds can reflect changing political dynamics and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

What is "Alaska Governor Election Winner" and why does it matter?

Alaska Governor Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Bernadette Wilson leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Tom Begich at 24%, Adam Crum at 21%, Lisa Murkowski at 15%.

What is moving the odds on "Alaska Governor Election Winner"?

Bernadette Wilson currently leads at 26% implied probability. Behind Bernadette Wilson, Tom Begich at 24% and Adam Crum at 21% and Lisa Murkowski at 15% are the next closest contenders. The 39.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe Information

Market Rulebook: Alaska Governor Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Click Bishop is sworn in as the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Matt Heilala is a podiatrist and member of the Alaska State Medical Board. He was appointed to the board in 2021 by Governor Mike Dunleavy. Heilala is running as a Republican candidate in the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.

About Shelley Hughes

Shelley Hughes is a Republican candidate for Governor of Alaska in the 2026 election. She served as a State Senator from Palmer, Alaska, from 2017 until her resignation in November 2025 to focus on her gubernatorial campaign. Hughes is relevant to this prediction market as a leading contender in the upcoming Alaska Governor Election.

About Nancy Dahlstrom

Nancy Dahlstrom is the current Lieutenant Governor of Alaska, serving since December 2022. She previously served as Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Corrections from 2018 to 2022. She is a candidate in the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.

About Click Bishop

Click Bishop is a former Alaska State Senator who served from 2013 to 2025. He was the Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development from 2007 to 2012. He is relevant to the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election as a declared candidate for governor.
The New York Times
The Wall Street Journal
The Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread39.0%
Platforms2
Candidates11
Leader

Bernadette Wilson

26.0% avg