What are the current odds for "Alaska Governor Election Winner" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Adam Crum: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Edna DeVries: 1¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. Mary Peltola: 0¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. Tom Begich: 21¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. The 49.2% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Adam Crum is at 25%?

A price of 25¢ means the market estimates a 25% probability that Adam Crum will be the outcome. Buying one share at 25¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 300% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Alaska Governor Election Winner Odds

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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 49.2% // +$4920.00

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Alaska Governor Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it will determine the leadership direction of Alaska, influencing state policies and governance for years to come.

Adam Crum leads the “Alaska Governor Election Winner” event at 25.4% implied probability. Other contenders include Edna DeVries (15.5%), Mary Peltola (15.1%), Tom Begich (25.5%), and Lisa Murkowski (12.6%). A 49.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Adam CrumARB

26% Avg

3¢

70¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	1¢	3¢	97¢	100¢
Polymarket	50.0%	30¢	70¢	30¢	70¢

Edna DeVriesARB

16% Avg

2¢

40¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	2¢	98¢	100¢
Polymarket	30.0%	20¢	40¢	60¢	80¢

Mary PeltolaARB

16% Avg

2¢

40¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	2¢	98¢	100¢
Polymarket	30.0%	20¢	40¢	60¢	80¢

Tom BegichARB

27% Avg

27¢

30¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	24.0%	21¢	27¢	73¢	79¢
Polymarket	29.5%	29¢	30¢	70¢	71¢

Lisa MurkowskiARB

13% Avg

1¢

30¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	25.0%	20¢	30¢	70¢	80¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Tom Begich

Tom Begich is a Democratic candidate for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. He served as Minority Leader of the Alaska State Senate from 2019 to 2023. His extensive experience in public service and leadership roles makes him a significant contender in this race.

About Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. She is the founder of Denali Disposal, a waste management company in Anchorage. She is relevant to this prediction market as a contender in the upcoming gubernatorial race.

About Matt Heilala

Matt Heilala is a podiatrist and member of the Alaska State Medical Board. He was appointed to the board in 2021 by Governor Mike Dunleavy. Heilala is running as a Republican candidate in the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.

About Shelley Hughes

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Alaska Governor Election?

The Alaska Governor Election can shape state policies on key issues such as resource management and education. The outcome may also impact Alaska's relationship with federal authorities.

When is the Alaska Governor Election scheduled?

The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.

How do prediction markets influence perceptions of the election?

Prediction markets aggregate public sentiment and expert analysis, providing insights into potential outcomes. Shifts in odds can reflect changing political dynamics and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

What is "Alaska Governor Election Winner" and why does it matter?

Alaska Governor Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Adam Crum leads at 25% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Edna DeVries at 16%, Mary Peltola at 15%, Tom Begich at 26%.

What is moving the odds on "Alaska Governor Election Winner"?

Adam Crum currently leads at 25% implied probability. Behind Adam Crum, Edna DeVries at 16% and Mary Peltola at 15% and Tom Begich at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 49.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

BUYNo@ 95¢$125K PnL

Payout$1,208

Stake$1,147.89

3d ago

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Alaska Governor Election Winner