Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsSmart MoneyArbitrageTrendingPaper TradingAPIPricing
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • US Presidential Election Hub
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • Tools
  • About
  • Affiliate Program
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsWhalesArbTrending
ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 36.5% // +$3650.00

Live prediction market odds for Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.

Discord
Follow on X

Kalshi / Polymarket

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

2026-08-18

About This Market

Share

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Alaska Governor primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it sets the stage for the general election, impacting party dynamics and voter turnout in the state.

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the “Alaska Governor primary: who will advance” event at 55.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Bill Walker (37.8%), and Lesil McGuire (32.3%). A 36.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
JK
Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsARB
53% Avg
Kalshi41¢
Polymarket73¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
36.5%32¢41¢59¢68¢
PolymarketPolymarket
69.5%66¢73¢27¢34¢
BW
Bill Walker
42% Avg
Kalshi38¢
Polymarket88¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
29.5%21¢38¢62¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
54.5%21¢88¢12¢79¢
LM
Lesil McGuireARB
29% Avg
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket81¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
8.5%3¢14¢86¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
49.5%18¢81¢19¢82¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is a former member of the Alaska House of Representatives, serving from 2013 to 2023. He is currently running for governor of Alaska, aiming to address the state's challenges through bipartisan collaboration. His extensive legislative experience and commitment to public service make him a significant contender in the gubernatorial race.

About Bill Walker

Bill Walker is an independent candidate for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. He served as Alaska's governor from 2014 to 2018. Walker's extensive political experience and leadership in Alaska's executive branch make him a significant contender in the upcoming primary.

About Lesil McGuire

Lesil McGuire is a former Republican member of the Alaska State Senate, serving from 2007 to 2017. She was the first woman president of the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region (PNWER) and established the Arctic Caucus. Her leadership in energy and Arctic policy, as well as women's rights, underscores her significant influence in Alaskan politics.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Alaska Governor primary?

The Alaska Governor primary determines which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. This can significantly influence the political landscape and voter engagement in the state.

How do prediction markets work for this primary?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment about which candidates are likely to advance.

What factors could influence the odds in this primary?

Factors such as candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout in early polls can impact the odds. Additionally, endorsements and political events leading up to the primary may sway public opinion.

What is "Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?" and why does it matter?

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Bill Walker at 38%, Lesil McGuire at 32%.

What is moving the odds on "Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?"?

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Bill Walker at 38% and Lesil McGuire at 32% are the next closest contenders. The 36.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Automate This Market

Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?” event. All for free.

As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et

Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread36.5%
Platforms2
Candidates3
Leader

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

55.5% avg

Market Rulebook: Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?