Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Alaska gubernatorial election?

Accepted Answer

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, polling data, and key endorsements. Additionally, local issues and voter turnout projections play a crucial role.

Question 2

When is the Alaska gubernatorial election scheduled?

Accepted Answer

The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is significant as it aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.

Question 3

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting the perceived likelihood of each candidate winning.

Question 4

What is "Alaska Governor winner? (Person)" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Alaska Governor winner? (Person) is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Tom Begich leads at 35% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 19%, Lesil McGuire at 11%, Bill Walker at 8%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Alaska Governor winner? (Person)"?

Accepted Answer

Tom Begich currently leads at 35% implied probability. Behind Tom Begich, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 19% and Lesil McGuire at 11% and Bill Walker at 8% are the next closest contenders. The 31.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Alaska Governor winner? (Person)" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt: Tom Begich: 23¢ on Kalshi, 29¢ on Polymarket, 54¢ on PredictIt. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 22¢ on Kalshi, 16¢ on Polymarket. Lesil McGuire: 2¢ on Kalshi, 20¢ on Polymarket. Bill Walker: 11¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket. The 31.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Tom Begich is at 35%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 35¢ means the market estimates a 35% probability that Tom Begich will be the outcome. Buying one share at 35¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 186% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	25.0%	23¢	27¢	73¢	77¢
Polymarket	28.5%	28¢	29¢	71¢	72¢
PredictIt	54.0%	29¢	79¢	21¢	71¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	21.5%	21¢	22¢	78¢	79¢
Polymarket	16.0%	16¢	16¢	84¢	84¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.5%	1¢	2¢	98¢	99¢
Polymarket	25.0%	20¢	30¢	70¢	80¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	10.5%	10¢	11¢	89¢	90¢
Polymarket	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

About This Market

Price History

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About Tom Begich

About Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

About Bill Walker

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Market Rulebook: Alaska Governor winner? (Person)