Live prediction market odds for Aligned Layer FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Predict.fun
2028-01-01
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
$20M leads the “Aligned Layer FDV above ___ one day after launch” event at 86.5% implied probability. Other contenders include $50M (83.3%), $100M (77.3%), $200M (26.8%), and $300M (19.9%). A 5.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Aligned Layer FDV above ___ one day after launch is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). $20M leads at 87% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include $50M at 82%, $100M at 79%, $200M at 27%.
$20M currently leads at 87% implied probability. Behind $20M, $50M at 82% and $100M at 79% and $200M at 27% are the next closest contenders. The 5.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: $20M: 87¢ on Polymarket. $50M: 82¢ on Polymarket. $100M: 79¢ on Polymarket. $200M: 27¢ on Polymarket. The 5.2% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 87¢ means the market estimates a 87% probability that $20M will be the outcome. Buying one share at 87¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 15% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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$20M
86.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Created At: 2026-04-01T16:57:40.077942778Z
