About This Market
50+ bps decrease is priced at 12.8% implied probability for the “April 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents” event. A 24.4% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Live prediction market odds for April 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.
Polymarket / Opinion
2026-04-29
50+ bps decrease is priced at 12.8% implied probability for the “April 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents” event. A 24.4% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
April 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion). 50+ bps decrease leads at 13% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
50+ bps decrease currently leads at 13% implied probability. The 24.4% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Opinion: 50+ bps decrease: 1¢ on Polymarket. The 24.4% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 13¢ means the market estimates a 13% probability that 50+ bps decrease will be the outcome. Buying one share at 13¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 669% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
50+ bps decrease
12.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket.
PolymarketThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.