Live prediction market odds for AR-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AR-02 House election scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election will play a crucial role in shaping the balance of power in Congress, influenced by voter sentiment and national political trends.
Democratic Party leads the “AR-02 House winner” event at 52.8% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 49.5%. A 73.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, campaign funding, and recent polling data. Additionally, national political trends and voter turnout can significantly impact the outcome.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The AR-02 House election is significant as it could determine party control in the House of Representatives. Changes in control can affect legislative priorities and governance.
AR-02 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 53% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 50%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 53% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 50% are the next closest contenders. The 73.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
52.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AR-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
