Live prediction market odds for Argentina: Stage of Elimination. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Kalshi / Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-07-19
Quarterfinals leads the “Argentina: Stage of Elimination” event at 27.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Semifinals (22.0%), Round of 16 (10.0%), and Round of 32 (5.3%). A 6.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Argentina: Stage of Elimination is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun). Quarterfinals leads at 28% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Semifinals at 23%, Round of 16 at 12%, Round of 32 at 9%.
Quarterfinals currently leads at 28% implied probability. Behind Quarterfinals, Semifinals at 23% and Round of 16 at 12% and Round of 32 at 9% are the next closest contenders. The 6.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun: Quarterfinals: 27¢ on Kalshi, 29¢ on Polymarket. Semifinals: 24¢ on Kalshi, 22¢ on Polymarket. Round of 16: 12¢ on Kalshi. Round of 32: 9¢ on Kalshi. The 6.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 28¢ means the market estimates a 28% probability that Quarterfinals will be the outcome. Buying one share at 28¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 257% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Quarterfinals
27.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Argentina is eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification. For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing. Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
Polymarket
Predict.funThis market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Argentina is eliminated. If Argentina wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Argentina is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Argentina based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
