Live prediction market odds for Arizona Governor Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Arizona Governor Election Winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence state policies and party control in a key battleground state, impacting national political dynamics.
Democrat is priced at 75.3% implied probability for the “Arizona Governor Election Winner” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread.
Polling data, candidate popularity, and campaign funding are key factors that influence market odds. Additionally, voter turnout and major state issues can sway public opinion leading up to the election.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and probabilities of various candidates winning.
Arizona has historically been a swing state, with both parties vying for control in recent elections. The outcome can significantly affect legislative agendas and national election strategies.
Arizona Governor Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 75% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Democrat currently leads at 75% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Democrat
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Arizona pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
75.3% avg
