Live prediction market odds for Arkansas Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Arkansas Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate, impacting legislative priorities and national politics.
Republican party leads the “Arkansas Senate winner” event at 94.3% implied probability, followed by Democratic party at 5.3%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and public sentiment play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national political trends and major events can sway voter opinions.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The Arkansas Senate election is set for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election day, when multiple federal and state offices are contested.
Arkansas Senate winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican party leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic party at 5%.
Republican party currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Republican party, Democratic party at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Republican party
94.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
