Live prediction market odds for Arkansas Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Arkansas Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate, impacting legislative priorities and national politics.
Republican leads the “Arkansas Senate winner” event at 95.7% implied probability, followed by Democrat at 5.1%. A 4.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and public sentiment play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national political trends and major events can sway voter opinions.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The Arkansas Senate election is set for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election day, when multiple federal and state offices are contested.
Arkansas Senate winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican leads at 96% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democrat at 5%.
Republican currently leads at 96% implied probability. Behind Republican, Democrat at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 4.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Republican
95.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
