Live prediction market odds for Arkansas Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Arkansas Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in the Senate, influenced by candidate popularity and voter turnout in the state.
Democrat is priced at 4.9% implied probability for the “Arkansas Senate winner” event. A 1.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate endorsements, polling data, and local issues that resonate with voters. Additionally, national political trends and party support can sway public opinion.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their beliefs about the outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as campaign events or debates.
The outcome could shift the Senate majority, affecting legislative agendas and national policies. Arkansas has historically leaned towards one party, but changing demographics may alter expectations.
Arkansas Senate winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 5% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Democrat currently leads at 5% implied probability. A 1.3% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Democrat
4.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
