Live prediction market odds for Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
Updated Apr 21, 6:12 PM EDT
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner. This election is crucial as it will determine the future political landscape of Armenia amid ongoing regional tensions and economic challenges.
Civil Contract leads the “Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner” event at 90.6% implied probability. Other contenders include I Have Honor Alliance (21.3%), and Armenia Alliance (5.7%). A 37.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The election will decide the ruling party and shape Armenia's domestic and foreign policies. Given the country's geopolitical situation, the outcome could impact relations with neighboring countries.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who wager on outcomes, reflecting their expectations based on current events and polling data. As new information emerges, odds can fluctuate significantly.
Key factors include party popularity, candidate debates, and recent political developments. Economic conditions and public sentiment regarding government performance also play a critical role.
Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Civil Contract leads at 91% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include I Have Honor Alliance at 21%, Armenia Alliance at 6%.
Civil Contract currently leads at 91% implied probability. Behind Civil Contract, I Have Honor Alliance at 21% and Armenia Alliance at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 37.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the winner of the next Armenian parliamentary election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Civil Contract, then the market resolves to Yes.
For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance.
PolymarketParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Civil Contract
90.6% avg
